Could the worm turn on an amnesty for irregular migrants?

I’m finding the TV political debates utterly compelling – not least because they seem to be shaping the course of public opinion much more than I’d expected. And is it just me, or is the BBC’s ‘wiggly worm’ opinion tracker coming out as the star of the debates? It is hilarious.

Anyway, aside from treating us to another round of the wiggly worm, last night’s roustabout held some very interesting moments on the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem immigration policies – particularly on the thorny question of an amnesty for irregular migrants in the UK.

The rather beautifully named Bethlehem asked about how the parties would ensure that immigration controls were ‘fair’ (nice phrasing Bethlehem). She was then treated to the parties’ key policies on immigration – and a few skirmishes besides.

Brown told us about the points based system, e-borders, and the general work of the Labour government in developing immigration controls. Cameron made the immigration cap – to bring about a “very big reduction” in the numbers of migrants coming to the UK – the centrepiece of his statements about Tory policy. There was some close questionning from Nick Clegg about how such a cap would be set and what it would look like – to which he responded that this would need to be set at a later date, in consultation with business and other stakeholders. No surprises there.

But it was Clegg’s comments on the Lib Dem policy to introduce an amnesty for irregular migrants living in the UK that raised the temperature of this debate. His position was that almost a million people have fallen into the shadows (and the “clutches of criminal gangs”) as a result of failures within the immigration system – a problem that simply can’t be ignored. When asked about Labour’s solution to the problem, Brown answered “deportation” – responding that an amnesty would pull more migrants to the UK seeking legal status. Cameron was also keen to dismiss an amnesty as a bad idea. Pundits doing the post-debate analysis on Newsnight also seemed to agree that this idea is automatically going to go down badly with the British public.

But where does public opinion really lie on this? Well, the BBC’s wiggly worm didn’t show a dramatic dip in public opinion when this policy was proposed by Clegg. More tellingly, opinion polls since last night also indicate that attitudes towards amnesty aren’t as negative as the media and anti-immigration lobby would have us believe. Could it be that, given the chance to hear some of the arguments, public sympathies may be more amenable the idea of some kind of amnesty?

A You Gov poll carried out for Migration Watch released this morning, shows that just over half of the population (54%) declare themselves to be opposed to an amnesty as proposed by the Lib Dems. But 44% of those polled were either in favour of an amnesty, or unsure. Considering that immigration rates as one of the key areas of public concern at the moment, with polls consistently showing at least 70% of the public in favour of tighter border controls, these results are startlingly encouraging for those in support of some kind of amnesty for undocumented migrants. I am daring to hope that, if the case were better made over the coming weeks and months, perhaps this could tip the balance in terms of public opinion.

An amnesty will not be popping up on the public wishlist any time soon. But it is refreshing to see this issue come up for political debate – and to see that the general public may not be as entrenched in its opposition to the idea as many think.