Why the Government should drop the net migration target

While the immigration minister might think that "reforms are starting to take effect” it is difficult to see this reflected in the net migration numbers. These figures are proving extremely resilient to any drop. The principal reason is that the emigration number – people leaving the country - is running low. In fact emigration has declined from a peak of 427,000 in 2008 to 336,000 in 2011, while the number of people coming into the country stayed roughly the same.

A couple of other things might make it to the tabloid headlines. Firstly on the issue of the 11% increase in National Insurance numbers (NINos) allocated to non-UK nationals. The figure seems to give evidence that the expansion of part-time casual job market produces a bias which favours the employment of relatively vulnerable groups of workers which are mainly excluded from the security of the welfare system. National Insurance numbers (NINos) are compulsory for people wishing to work in the UK, whether short-term or long-term and give a good indication of the uptake of work by foreign nationals. In this case this would hint at the fact that the employers are keen to take on flexible workforce, mostly formed from recently arrived migrants who have no choice but to quickly slot into whatever work is on offer.

Another thing has made it into first media reports and has the potential to grab some extra headlines in the future, namely the number of new Commonwealth immigrants coming to the UK, which hit 170,000 (around 29% of all migrants in the year to June 2011). This is now the highest recorded estimate and might tempt people to start panicking. But with two thirds coming to the UK to study this doesn’t need a serious reduction and shows part of a success of the growth in the higher education export industry. This is something the APPG on migration and our colleague Awale Olad have discussed at length on our blog.

Overall this is yet another serious challenge to the Government and their willingness to measure their success based on the fluctuation of the net migration figure. If that remains the case the media reporting and public opinion will remain concerned and grim. If the Government decides to discuss other things, such as the success of the higher education sector, contribution of migrants to public services, etc. then migration just might become a part of a strategy leading to the economic recovery.